by Phil Elder
Alberta’s political parties are tuning their engines and taking practice laps for the upcoming provincial election. With the latest poll showing the PCs at 53%, Wildrose at 16%, the NDP at 13%, Liberals at 11% and the Alberta Party at 2% (with the new Evergreen Party not included), it seems all over but the shouting. The only interesting question is which party will be a corporals guard Official Opposition.
But lets take a closer look. Strange things are happening. Several PC MLAs have defected to Wildrose. Former Minister of Finance Lloyd Snelgrove, no doubt unhappy about Premier Redford’s excluding him from her new cabinet, first announced he will not run again, and then peed in the pickles by deserting the PC caucus to sit as an independent. He’s also discussed some unspecified form of cooperation with Wildrose leader Danielle Smith.
Why couldnt he have had the grace to wait 2 months and disappear quietly? We may hear more from him or others in the Tory caucus So the good ship Lollipop has sprung a few leaks, even if Captain Redford doesn’t run her on the rocks.
Another possible complication for the PCs, apart from the inevitable vote-splitting with Wildrose, is foretold in the poll numbers just quoted. Adding the Green (Evergreen) Partys loyal core vote to the above numbers, the combined centre-left vote could total 30% or more. The plot thickens. What would happen if many anti-Tories decided to vote strategically for whichever progressive candidate in their riding, regardless of party, has the best chance to knock off the 2 right-wing candidates? This could produce some big surprises – remember Joe Clark winning in Calgary Centre on an anybody but Alliance strategic vote? Or Linda Duncan receiving cross-party votes in Edmonton Strathcona? Let us recall that in 2008 12 victorious Tories received fewer votes than the combined total of Green, Liberal and NDP votes in their constituency. They could be vulnerable this spring.
The Democratic Renewal Project (DRP) will soon unveil a web-based strategic voting initiative, changealberta.ca, for the provincial election. Modelling the campaign on such websites as Project Democracy in last years federal election, the DRP plans to recommend the most likely winner from the four centre-left parties in most of Albertas urban electoral districts.
Given poll and past election results, we expect that both New Democrats and Liberals will get the nod in Edmonton, and the Liberals in Calgary, but decisions will depend on continued research – there could be a few surprises.
Of course much can change during the campaign – its possible that PC/Wildrose gaffes could change the numbers, or that a particular issue, such as electricity deregulation that NDP leader Brian Mason is pushing, could galvanize voters. But the best bet is that if Premier Redford’s progressive paint job wears thin, opposition candidates could get a big boost from strategic anybody but PC/Wildrose voters. This election could be fun. Or it could be just a replay of the same old Tory you’ve changed, we’ve changed song.
I think Edmonton-Glenora will be a constituency to watch! I’ve been working on my campaign since August (door-knocking since November) and the community is very receptive to change. Many people are aware of my track record as a trustee for the area and some know me as the Acting Leader for the Alberta Party. My sense is that people are fed up with politics as usual and looking for a viable, fresh, authentic option. They want someone who will serve the community first, ahead of serving the party… and I feel optimistic. My campaign has raised 40% of its overall budget, we have recruited 70 volunteers and are in the process of finding an office. We will be running a very competitive campaign and I encourage you to stay tuned!!
I am extremely interested to see which of the progressive party candidates will take lead in several constituencies as the election progresses, including in your riding, Sue.
Well-informed voters voting in sync for the candidate they believe is the best opposition, even when that candidate is not of their particular party, can make a notable difference that counts (think Joe Clark in Calgary). One can only hope that happens in this election as it’s the only way I think we can challenge the right wing in Alberta at this time of so many divided opposition parties. I welcome the Alberta Party as one of those parties that could help make a significant difference to the legislature mix.
Edmonton Glenora will definitely be a constituency to watch, as it has often been in the past! ChangeAlberta.ca will be studying the constituency closely. There are three well-known progressives in the race: Sue Huff for the Alberta party, Bruce Miller for the Liberals, and Ray Martin for the NDP. In a fairer electoral system, such as PR, all three of these fine candidates might end up serving Albertans in the legislature. But in our FPTP system, there is an excellent chance that they will cancel each other out and allow Heather Klimchuk to win an undeserved second term. So, ChangeAlberta, after intensively studying likely voter intentions in the constituency, will indicate which of these three progressives has the best shot at defeating Klimchuk. T
Two things that, I think, make this election different from past elections:
1–The Wildrose have a strong candidate with good name recognition running in Edmonton-Glenora: Don Koziak. For the first time (ever?) the PCs are facing the prospect of a split on the right. This could radically change WHO will be “coming up the middle.”
2– The ability of the voter to surprise! Three times in the last year, the “underdog” has won: NDs in Quebec, Nenshi in Calgary, Redford for Premier. In all three cases, the polls, predictions and pundits were completely, utterly wrong. The voter came out and surprised everyone. It’s delightful!! It’s democracy! And I think people are getting a taste of their ability to influence and shape the course of events. So we can predict and analyze all we want, but the truth is: the voters decide and when they feel connected to a candidate and have a sense of hope….they show up and catch us all off-guard.
So perhaps the real question you should be asking is: Which candidate can inspire?
I always encourage people to vote FOR a candidate, not AGAINST a candidate. I say: Choose the person who aligns with your values. Choose the person you believe. Choose the person you think will do the best job for our community. Voting AGAINST is a sad, angry and hollow thing. Voting FOR is about looking yourself in the mirror the day after Election Day and being comfortable with who you see. It’s knowing that you voted your conscience.
I hope this election will see more people voting FOR and fewer people voting AGAINST.
According to this morning’s news, the Conservatives are revealing their usual “renewal magic” (this time with Redford) and are pulling far ahead in the polls.
If this persists, the Wildrose won’t make enough of a dent in PC numbers to challenge them, meaning that a number of excellent progressive candidates will split the vote… yet again. If this happens, I hope there’ll be some serious constructive discussion about cooperation, post-election.